Dell will Emulate Apple, Using Linux
I was just reading this article on Slashdot.
If we step out of our consumer role and step into the role of Apple CEO, then study Apple's past actions, the article's conclusions should be obvious. I was not surprised that Apple allowed MS OSes to run on Intel Macs -- they could hardly to anything to stop that -- but I was surprised they they released Boot Camp Beta. The guys at Yellow Dog Linux must've been green with jealousy at that. Then there are the commercials that advertise the Mac's ability to run Windows.
Then only reason Apple would take those two steps is to *encourage* Windows users to use a Mac -- without giving up Windows. I understand the "switch" ad campaign was not very successful at making converts (although the iPod halo effect was). Nobody would switch to a Mac if it meant giving up Windows. Boot Camp on Intel Mac is a way to get Windows users to switch, without giving up Windows.
The target? Remember, Apple is a hardware company -- albeit making bold forays into consumer electronics and media. Most analysis of their finances show that their profits come from their hardware, not their software. The top-quality Apple software is what lures people to buy Macs instead of PCs. In the past, Apple needed specialized hardware (SCSI, NuBus, etc.) to try to present an advantage over PCs, but now that's changed. With things like USB, Apple runs on the same commodity hardware components as PCs. Apple now has common hardware and superior software compared to the PC companies. If we consider three major factors in computer purchasing decisions: hardware quality, software quality, and price, Apple is equal in the first, better in the second, and flexible on the third: price. While Apple has always avoided the lowest end of the market, it has extended its boundary toward to low end while becoming increasingly competitive on the high end.
The trend toward competing with Dell has been developing slowly but steadily. So slowly that nobody noticed until now. So steadily that it is now happening. The question is, what is Dell going to do now? What *can* they do now? I don't think Dell can count on Windows providing a user experience that equals MacOS. What's the alternative?
Linux! While Linux does not have the ease of use that MacOS has (and probably never will), it's open source nature means the potential is there. All Dell has to do is find someone to develop a Linux UI that is almost as easy as MacOS, then preinstall that on Dell. This would eliminate the ease-of-use advantage of Mac while maintaining a cost advantage.
Who's going to develop this Linux-as-easy-as-Mac? (Note: I don't think it will ever by *quite* as easy, but it can get close enough.) You need a group of talented and motivated people to do that. Today, those people are moving to Google. Google has already demonstrated some very useful features on reasonably good interfaces with products like Google Desktop and Google Earth (Apple could do it better, but Google is doing it well enough). My prediction: to avoid certain death, Dell expands its collaboration with Google to the point where Dell is preinstalling Linux with a Google developed interface. Dell's software costs head toward zero, giving it a pricing advantage over Apple.
How will Dell pull off this Windows to Linux switch? The same way Apple is pulling it off. Google's software offerings will be available on both Windows and Linux, and users won't be able to tell the difference. Dell will offer the Linux version of their software load at a discount, reflecting the lack of costs associated with Windows licensing.
Where does this leave Windows? Linux and MacOS are inherently more secure than Windows. If you don't accept this fact, then skip the next two paragraphs. This will not change with the release of Vista. More and more consumers and companies are realizing that dealing with Windows security is an additional cost, in terms of time, money, and frustration, that they don't need to deal with when using Apple or Linux products. To a consumer, this makes the difference between frustration and happiness. To a company, this ultimately flows down to the bottom line. With the iPod halo effect and now the Boot Camp on Intel Mac, more and more people are discovering this.
Windows must adapt or die. Windows has done a remarkable job of copying MacOS over the years, but time and time again, it has failed become more secure and less frustrating. Can they do it with Vista? I wouldn't bet on it. Windows users who switch to Mac hardware will eventually switch to Mac software. Windows users who are buying Dell's will eventually switch to Linux on Dell.
In the future, the computer rivalry will be between MacOS on Apple hardware (with Intel chips?) vs. a Google UI on Linux on Dell hardware (with AMD chips?).
If we step out of our consumer role and step into the role of Apple CEO, then study Apple's past actions, the article's conclusions should be obvious. I was not surprised that Apple allowed MS OSes to run on Intel Macs -- they could hardly to anything to stop that -- but I was surprised they they released Boot Camp Beta. The guys at Yellow Dog Linux must've been green with jealousy at that. Then there are the commercials that advertise the Mac's ability to run Windows.
Then only reason Apple would take those two steps is to *encourage* Windows users to use a Mac -- without giving up Windows. I understand the "switch" ad campaign was not very successful at making converts (although the iPod halo effect was). Nobody would switch to a Mac if it meant giving up Windows. Boot Camp on Intel Mac is a way to get Windows users to switch, without giving up Windows.
The target? Remember, Apple is a hardware company -- albeit making bold forays into consumer electronics and media. Most analysis of their finances show that their profits come from their hardware, not their software. The top-quality Apple software is what lures people to buy Macs instead of PCs. In the past, Apple needed specialized hardware (SCSI, NuBus, etc.) to try to present an advantage over PCs, but now that's changed. With things like USB, Apple runs on the same commodity hardware components as PCs. Apple now has common hardware and superior software compared to the PC companies. If we consider three major factors in computer purchasing decisions: hardware quality, software quality, and price, Apple is equal in the first, better in the second, and flexible on the third: price. While Apple has always avoided the lowest end of the market, it has extended its boundary toward to low end while becoming increasingly competitive on the high end.
The trend toward competing with Dell has been developing slowly but steadily. So slowly that nobody noticed until now. So steadily that it is now happening. The question is, what is Dell going to do now? What *can* they do now? I don't think Dell can count on Windows providing a user experience that equals MacOS. What's the alternative?
Linux! While Linux does not have the ease of use that MacOS has (and probably never will), it's open source nature means the potential is there. All Dell has to do is find someone to develop a Linux UI that is almost as easy as MacOS, then preinstall that on Dell. This would eliminate the ease-of-use advantage of Mac while maintaining a cost advantage.
Who's going to develop this Linux-as-easy-as-Mac? (Note: I don't think it will ever by *quite* as easy, but it can get close enough.) You need a group of talented and motivated people to do that. Today, those people are moving to Google. Google has already demonstrated some very useful features on reasonably good interfaces with products like Google Desktop and Google Earth (Apple could do it better, but Google is doing it well enough). My prediction: to avoid certain death, Dell expands its collaboration with Google to the point where Dell is preinstalling Linux with a Google developed interface. Dell's software costs head toward zero, giving it a pricing advantage over Apple.
How will Dell pull off this Windows to Linux switch? The same way Apple is pulling it off. Google's software offerings will be available on both Windows and Linux, and users won't be able to tell the difference. Dell will offer the Linux version of their software load at a discount, reflecting the lack of costs associated with Windows licensing.
Where does this leave Windows? Linux and MacOS are inherently more secure than Windows. If you don't accept this fact, then skip the next two paragraphs. This will not change with the release of Vista. More and more consumers and companies are realizing that dealing with Windows security is an additional cost, in terms of time, money, and frustration, that they don't need to deal with when using Apple or Linux products. To a consumer, this makes the difference between frustration and happiness. To a company, this ultimately flows down to the bottom line. With the iPod halo effect and now the Boot Camp on Intel Mac, more and more people are discovering this.
Windows must adapt or die. Windows has done a remarkable job of copying MacOS over the years, but time and time again, it has failed become more secure and less frustrating. Can they do it with Vista? I wouldn't bet on it. Windows users who switch to Mac hardware will eventually switch to Mac software. Windows users who are buying Dell's will eventually switch to Linux on Dell.
In the future, the computer rivalry will be between MacOS on Apple hardware (with Intel chips?) vs. a Google UI on Linux on Dell hardware (with AMD chips?).
posted by Bernie at 8:23 AM
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