Wednesday, June 08, 2005

Apple Embraces Reality with Switch to x86

I have to admit I was in denial on this one and it is Apple that is embracing reality with the planned switch the an Intel x86 processor. As elegant as the PowerPC architecture is, Apple has had recurring supply problems, both with Motorola and IBM. Without use of the Altivec processor, the PowerPC really is slower than Intel and AMD CPUs by up to a factor of two. With IBM focusing on the Cell processor and more than a year behind in delivering a 3 GHz G5, Apple had to find an alternative. What should have made the prediction easy is that it was widely, and believably, rumored that MacOS X has been running on x86 inside Apple for quite a while. Heck, Darwin, the open source portion of MacOS X is publicly available on x86.

So here are my predictions:


  1. Apple will switch the Mac Mini, iBook, and PowerBook to x86-64 in 2006.
  2. The PowerMac will continue to be powered by the PowerPC 970 (G5)...
  3. OR Intel will license Altivec and incorporate it into the Mac x86 cpu.
  4. It will be relatively easy to run Windows and x86 Linux on the x86 Mac...
  5. BECAUSE Dell will be contracted to produce the x86 Mac OR ELSE...
  6. Apple will become a major supplier of PC hardware.
  7. As a consequence of the above, the x86 Mac's market will rapidly expand beyond the MacOS X market.
  8. As Windows users who buy x86 Macs start to realize that their Mac comes with an operating system, they will try out MacOS X...
  9. and they will become converts!
  10. MacOS X will continue to be PowerPC compatible indefinitely BECAUSE...
  11. Cell processor support will be added to MacOS X, and this will be used by the graphics/animation gurus.
  12. If Apple runs into supply or performance problems with Intel, they will second-source AMD, playing Intel and AMD off against each other the same way they played IBM and Motorola.
  13. All of the desktop marketshare that Linux has failed to take away from Microsoft will be taken away, instead, by Apple.
  14. Apple will release a new spreadsheet program, combine it with Keynote and Pages, and nibble into the MS Office marketshare.


Conclusion:

The switch to MacOS X and the open-sourcing of Darwin has removed hardware platform as a constraint on Apple. Apple is flexing its muscle. MacOS X has grown up and is ready to take over.