Peak Google and the Real Threat to Microsoft
In his August 25, 2005 I, Cringely column, Robert X. Cringely expresses a contrarian view on Google and a surprising prediction about the real threat to Microsoft.
He says Google has peaked as a company and that their current tactic is to keep its competitors nervous. While Google has brought out Google searchable mail, maps with satellite photos, and the like, I have to concede that beyond its success with search and search-based advertising, it has not done anything uniquely groundbreaking. Still it is sucking up the bulk of the computer and software engineering talent in the industry and it is increasing its presence on computer desktops.
However, Google is cleverly using its "threat-to-Microsoft" image by keeping its competitors guessing. It is using its high stock price to raise money cheaply. It is acquiring bandwidth when it's cheap.
Enough about Google. The punch line of the article is that the real threat to Microsoft is Apple, once you put two and two together. Note that Apple is moving to Intel CPUs in its future computers and that hackers are able to run Intel MacOS X on generic Intel-based PCs. Also note that the popular iPod can be made bootable. While Apple may not want to let people run it's latest OS on generic PCs, Apple might not mind installing a bootable older version of MacOS X on its iPods, allowing generic Intel PCs to boot OS X from an iPod. The general concensus seems to be that many iPod buyers are considering a switch to Mac computers. The ability to demo MacOS X for free by booting off the iPod may turn a consideration into a decision.
After demoing OS X by booting a generic PC off an iPod, the PC user may not feel compelled to go out and buy a Mac, but she may still considering making more use of MacOS X. Thus, MacOS gains mindshare.
What do you think?
He says Google has peaked as a company and that their current tactic is to keep its competitors nervous. While Google has brought out Google searchable mail, maps with satellite photos, and the like, I have to concede that beyond its success with search and search-based advertising, it has not done anything uniquely groundbreaking. Still it is sucking up the bulk of the computer and software engineering talent in the industry and it is increasing its presence on computer desktops.
However, Google is cleverly using its "threat-to-Microsoft" image by keeping its competitors guessing. It is using its high stock price to raise money cheaply. It is acquiring bandwidth when it's cheap.
Enough about Google. The punch line of the article is that the real threat to Microsoft is Apple, once you put two and two together. Note that Apple is moving to Intel CPUs in its future computers and that hackers are able to run Intel MacOS X on generic Intel-based PCs. Also note that the popular iPod can be made bootable. While Apple may not want to let people run it's latest OS on generic PCs, Apple might not mind installing a bootable older version of MacOS X on its iPods, allowing generic Intel PCs to boot OS X from an iPod. The general concensus seems to be that many iPod buyers are considering a switch to Mac computers. The ability to demo MacOS X for free by booting off the iPod may turn a consideration into a decision.
After demoing OS X by booting a generic PC off an iPod, the PC user may not feel compelled to go out and buy a Mac, but she may still considering making more use of MacOS X. Thus, MacOS gains mindshare.
What do you think?
posted by Bernie at 7:33 PM
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